AUD/USD and GOLD made new all time heights

As expected AUD/USD has made a new all time heigh value. It is now 1.0677 and it was 1.0686 a few minutes to an hour earlier. The sentiment seems to be in favour of AUD in the sense that even while EUR and GBP were falling against USD for limited periods AUD was getting stronger. While I was trading today on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD it felt like the market is dumping other currencies in favour of AUD. The 4h and 8h charts do not give signs of the value going down yet. Another big driver for aussie making a new record against the greenback is the price of gold. Gold is now trading at 1503.35USD.

I was also maintaining a bullish EUR/USD bias. Now it is trading at 1.4519 and has been trading 1.4546 a few minutes ago. EUR/JPY has turned back from below 118.50 and is now probably going up, firstly to 121.25 and later to 122. We need to take into account the holidays this week and next week. I have bought EUR/JPY at 120.25 for 100 pips.

GBP/USD seems more bullish, now trading at 1.6365. GBP/JPY came from below 134.60 and seems also bullish, now trading at 135.44.

Lessons learned

Since I have been closing too early many winning trades I should allow myself bigger risks.

After a big win there should be a small risk, this will conserve the profits and not confuse the mind.

There is a high probability that method 1-2-4-8 works providing each position has a very small profit margin.

Candlestick patterns work well, and my favourite is 5 minute charts; they work even better on every market opening.

Once I make wins greater than what I want for one day I should cash them and leave the trade.

AUD/USD interesting

The pair is now 1.0559 and it seems last week it has retraced but came back. It is very interesting to see if the formation is a double top on daily chart, or if the spot will make new all time heights. On daily and weekly charts it is bullish. Note that three weeks in a row AUD/USD has closed the week high. The three white soldiers (on my graphs they are actually three blue soldiers) pattern on weekly indicates next week should close with a new heigh, probably a new all time high since AUD/USD has been floating on the currency market.

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY have both closed against my trades, so I have lost a big number of pips last week on each of them. I am still maintaining a bullish bias on these. EUR/USD now is 1.4422 and has support on daily at 1.4411 and 300 pips lower on weekly chart. The fascinating one is EUR/JPY which seems to go down towards 118.50 support, but is very bullish on weekly, with a long weekly wick 5 weeks ago on the weekly chart. Let us wait on these, last trades on them have been not so successful.

I would be bearish on GBP/USD now at 1.6294 and I expect it touches 1.6267 next two days. GBP/JPY now at 135.30 should lose another 70 pips starting next week.

AUD/USD retrace looses steam

AUD/USD now at 1.0490. Gold, silver and oil went up today against USD, and AUD has stopped falling. AUD is showing bullish on both daily and weekly charts — see BB1,20 and AUD is above them. Waiting ready to buy, looking for confirmation on smaller charts.

EUR/USD is now 1.45, and continues the journey to 1.49.  It is bullish on any chart over 1h. Now buying, SL 1.4350, T1 1.4900.

GBP/USD has found support on weekly chart at 1.6230. It is still bullish on weekly. Waiting ready to buy, looking for confirmation on smaller charts.

GBP/JPY has not finished the retrace.

EUR/JPY is the second buy for me. Now buying, SL 120.50, T1 130.00.

Steps towards setting up a trading fund

I would like to do an exercise of setting up a trading fund for forex trading. Taking part in this would offer a few advantages: a) the fund would return minimum the interest rate for a bank deposit or “the deposit rate”; b) “the aim” of the fund is to return 30% for its investors; c) there is a safety guarantee in the sense that the investors’ money will not be traded; d) there is a satisfaction guarantee in the sense that if they are not satisfied with the returns investors can redraw their money any time but no sooner than 1 month from their announcement; e) the management amount will be zero if investment does not return “the deposit rate”, a flat fee of half of the interest from the deposit if return after payment of management fee is between “the deposit rate” and “the aim”, and half of the interest from the deposit account plus any amount over “the aim” when “the aim” is reached. These are 5 guarantees.

This is addressing towards investors able to contribute with 10.000AUD. It will not be an opened fund, it will be offered for 1000 clients only. Clients need to agree to sign the Trading Fund as a joint deposit holder and to allow the Trust to get a credit card based on half of the deposit. The Trust Fund uses the money on the credit card for trading, not the investor’s money.

Interesting Link about Starting Online

46 Ways To Start A Business With No Money

AUD/USD retrace is in progress

The pair AUD/USD is still on an uptrend on weekly and daily charts, giving reason for further upside, but the retrace is in progress. First 100 pip of this retrace move have happenend in less than 36 hours. Note Gold and Oil have gone down from their recent heights.

EUR/USD shares similarities with AUD/USD. It should resume climbing after the retrace which is in progress.

GBP/USD has touched 1.6420 for a second time since Friday. A doube top formation on 1h chart calls for selling intraday.

GBP/JPY is now 137.38, not far from 137.02 as writing on Sunday (please see below).

EUR/JPY is now 121.34, look for buying opportunities. They come as reversal candlestick patters.

AUD/USD still to grow

The pair is on an uptrend on weekly and daily charts, giving reason for further upside. A multi-day retrace needs to follow and will probably see the price falling to 1.0245 which is 38.2% Fibbo. Currently the price is 1.0575.  On a short term the spot will probably fall from current 1.0575 to 1.0543 on Monday morning. I keep an eye on the beginning of the retracement.

EUR/USD is on uptrend also, probably going towards 1.49 and will probably get there in 4 weeks. Spot now 1.4484.

GBP/USD is on uptrend and will probably reach 1.6435 on Monday. Currently spot is 1.6378. I intend to buy here on Monday.

GBP/JPY is now 1.3887.  The 4h and 8h charts show spot can get down to 137.02 before resuming uptrend towards 1.58. The latter one is a move of 2000 pips, and it is expected to take a few months (1 year perhaps) to get there.

Since EUR/GBP seems also in uptrend it looks like EUR/JPY, now at 122.81 is going for 134. It is only around 1100 pips, but seems less risky than GBP/JPY. Stop loss should be around 118 (there is a probability that 120.50 will be touched again).  This is a very attractive buy opportunity for Monday.

The goal is 200+ pips per week

There are many advantages of the Foreign Exchange market of which the focus today is on that it does not limit the speculators who are priviate individuals. The analysis one does on his own can be very good, and even if he is not a specialist in many things, mastering one pattern, or one method can give good return, even an edge against investment funds.

For me the goal is to make 200 pips per week, repeatedly, constantly. This is very important and it gives profit no matter where you start.

Another profitable day for semi-automatic trading

I used to work with Metatrader provided by fxcm.com. I switched to Metatrader provided by forex.com. The main difference is the number of digits used for Bid/Ask, and the fact that OrderSend function does not work as well on fxcm.com when used with OP_BUY and OP_SELL as opposed to the same function when used with forex.com.

But anyway, I had two sell positions on AUD/USD and both came successful, making around 600USD. I prefer by far automatic trading to manual trading. It is an additional level of control, beside the manual one. 6% in two days is excellent, compared, for example with the interest rate offered for a deposit in a bank, which is also 6% but in one year.

Just noted in Bloomberg Markets magazine, Feb.2011,  that a currency hedge fund in Cyprus, called Ikos FX, specializing in currencies and having a portfolio above 1 billion USD has made a profit of 30% in the first 6 month. Think about it for a moment, please.