AUD/USD over 1.0750 and EUR/AUD under 1.23

There is little chance for AUD/USD to go down to 0.92 since it has gone over 1.0750 and now is trading in the high 1.08. AUD also strong against EUR after breaking 1.30 support.

Possibly AUD/USD at .92 by or during April

Support at .96 than .92.

Tourism – Europe v. Australia

“Sorry Australia, Europe rules” is an article where the author is comparing Europe and Australia continents on a few topics: history, great buildings, museums, geographic proximity, diversity, towns and small cities, public transport, different types of scenery,  long summer nights, festivals. Mind! The video showing up on the page is not the sum up of the article. My opinion: there are very good aspects about living and working here but you need lots of patience in terms of tourism; patience is needed when travelling and also when you find things that remind you of something better some place else. The article: http://www.theage.com.au/travel/sorry-australia-europe-rules-20111026-1mj5o.html

Stopped out on AUD/USD at 1.04

Lost 200 pips.

Selling AUD/USD at 1.02 till .995

One of the patterns I have watched for some time is “big move + hit SMA50 + hit SMA20″. The patterns has done steps 1 and 2, so it should go to SMA20, now at 0.9925. Entered 10/20/2011 4:33 NY time (UTC-4).

Scenarios about BK trading

I have run a few scenarios based on BK trading results. I have considered an account of 1:100 from a standard lot and 1:200 leverage during trading.

Scenario 1, called 1-1-1-1-1, would have brought a return of 405pips, which can translate 40% and 1000 invested only. You never need more than 1000 margin.

Scenario 2, called 1-1-1-2-4, would have brought a return of 677pips, or 67% and maximum 2000 in margin.

Scenario 3, called 1-1-2-4-8, would have brought a return of 1145 pips, or 114% and maximum 2000 margin.

Scenario 4, called 1-2-4-8-16, would have brought a return of 1581 pips, or 158% but would require 4000 margin worst case scenario.

It is very interesting that same trades make Q2 a losing quarter in case of 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2-4 but a winning quarter in case of 1-1-2-4-8 and 1-2-4-8-16.

Based on all this I recommend for myself running 1 year with 1-1-2-4-8 having 1:50 margin and with 1:200 leverage trades and only double the trades at the beginning of Q2 and Q4 if the margin in the account is doubling.

EUR/USD selling – short term

1h EUR/USD chart is showing a shooting star at 9pm to 10pm AEST. This means a selling opportunity has formed. Now spot is 1.4591 and may go down to 1.4555.

The goal is 200+ pips per week (II)

I have noticed the AUD/USD spot has moved today between 1.0525 to 1.0584 than to 1.0671 which are pivot points. Interesting… I am trying to apply this to EUR/JPY buy, even though a better candidate should be EUR/USD.

AUD/USD and GOLD made new all time heights

As expected AUD/USD has made a new all time heigh value. It is now 1.0677 and it was 1.0686 a few minutes to an hour earlier. The sentiment seems to be in favour of AUD in the sense that even while EUR and GBP were falling against USD for limited periods AUD was getting stronger. While I was trading today on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD it felt like the market is dumping other currencies in favour of AUD. The 4h and 8h charts do not give signs of the value going down yet. Another big driver for aussie making a new record against the greenback is the price of gold. Gold is now trading at 1503.35USD.

I was also maintaining a bullish EUR/USD bias. Now it is trading at 1.4519 and has been trading 1.4546 a few minutes ago. EUR/JPY has turned back from below 118.50 and is now probably going up, firstly to 121.25 and later to 122. We need to take into account the holidays this week and next week. I have bought EUR/JPY at 120.25 for 100 pips.

GBP/USD seems more bullish, now trading at 1.6365. GBP/JPY came from below 134.60 and seems also bullish, now trading at 135.44.

Lessons learned

Since I have been closing too early many winning trades I should allow myself bigger risks.

After a big win there should be a small risk, this will conserve the profits and not confuse the mind.

There is a high probability that method 1-2-4-8 works providing each position has a very small profit margin.

Candlestick patterns work well, and my favourite is 5 minute charts; they work even better on every market opening.

Once I make wins greater than what I want for one day I should cash them and leave the trade.